Samsung’s early mass production and shipments of HBM4 chips, achieving industry-leading speeds and securing key customer validations, heighten competitive pressures on Micron’s AI memory strategy. While Micron maintains strong HBM3E traction and anticipates HBM4 ramp-up soon, the move underscores risks to its market share gains and valuation premium tied to explosive AI demand, even as overall HBM supply remains constrained through 2026 and beyond.
Samsung Accelerates HBM4 Ramp Amid AI Memory Boom
Samsung Electronics has officially commenced mass production of its sixth-generation high-bandwidth memory (HBM4), marking the industry’s first commercial shipments of the technology. The chips deliver consistent data processing speeds of 11.7 gigabits per second—a 22% improvement over HBM3E—with potential bursts reaching 13 Gbps. Built on advanced 1c DRAM process technology for the cell dies and 4-nanometer foundry processes for the base die, Samsung’s HBM4 emphasizes both performance and energy efficiency, critical for powering the massive parallel computations in modern AI training and inference workloads.
The ramp is underway at Samsung’s Pyeongtaek facility, with plans to boost overall HBM production capacity by approximately 50% in 2026, targeting around 250,000 wafers per month by year-end. Initial focus is on 12-high stacks, with 16-high configurations expected later in the year. Samsung has passed rigorous quality certifications from leading AI chip designers, including Nvidia, and secured purchase orders aligned with the Vera Rubin platform timeline. The company projects HBM sales to more than triple in 2026 compared to 2025, reflecting aggressive expansion to capture a larger portion of the AI-driven memory surge.
This acceleration comes after Samsung trailed in the HBM3E era, where SK hynix dominated supply to Nvidia’s Blackwell and earlier platforms. By reclaiming early-mover status in HBM4, Samsung is narrowing the gap and positioning for stronger design wins in future accelerator generations.
Micron’s HBM Position Under the Spotlight
Micron Technology has built significant momentum in the AI memory space, particularly through its HBM3E offerings, which have demonstrated superior power efficiency—up to 30% better than competitors in certain configurations. This advantage has helped Micron secure meaningful share in high-margin AI segments, with HBM revenue growing dramatically and contributing to record financial performance.
Recent quarters show Micron’s HBM annualized run rate reaching around $8 billion, with capacity effectively sold out through 2026. The company has begun high-volume production and customer shipments of HBM4 ahead of some schedules, emphasizing over 20% improved power efficiency compared to its own HBM3E 36GB 12-high products. Micron is in active discussions for HBM4 volumes and expects strong uptake, supported by its focus on performance leadership and cost optimizations.
However, Samsung’s earlier commercial shipments introduce fresh dynamics. Reports indicate Micron may have faced qualification hurdles or lower pin speeds in early HBM4 samples, potentially delaying its full ramp relative to Samsung and SK hynix. While Micron remains a key supplier for platforms like AMD’s Instinct MI series, the Nvidia-centric ecosystem—where SK hynix has held dominant share—could see Samsung gaining ground, limiting Micron’s access to the highest-volume, highest-margin orders in the near term.
Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape
The HBM market remains an oligopoly dominated by three players: SK hynix, Samsung, and Micron. In recent quarters, SK hynix has led with shares around 53-62%, followed by Samsung at 22-35%, and Micron at 11-21%, depending on the period. The transition to HBM4 represents a pivotal battleground, as the new standard offers wider interfaces (up to 2048 bits), bandwidth exceeding 2-3 TB/s per stack, and enhanced efficiency to address the memory wall constraining AI scaling.
Demand for HBM continues to outstrip supply substantially, with AI projected to consume nearly 20% of global DRAM wafer capacity in 2026. Prices have surged dramatically—DRAM spot prices up 80-90% in recent periods—and HBM commands premiums three times higher than standard memory, often comprising over 50% of packaged GPU costs. The overall HBM market is forecasted to expand from around $35 billion in 2025 to $100 billion by 2028, far outpacing traditional DRAM growth.
Valuation Implications for Micron
Micron’s stock has reflected the AI tailwinds, with shares trading around $410 recently, up significantly year-to-date amid strong earnings beats and margin expansion (gross margins approaching 45-56% in recent reports). Analysts have raised targets, with some citing through-cycle EPS potential supporting multiples around 25x. Projections for 2026 earnings reflect robust HBM contributions, though competition in HBM4 could pressure pricing if supply eases marginally or if Micron captures less of the premium tier.
Samsung’s ramp adds a layer of uncertainty: earlier volume from competitors might cap Micron’s upside in share gains, particularly if customers prioritize validated, high-speed options for initial Vera Rubin builds. Yet, persistent shortages and Micron’s efficiency edge provide resilience, with the company hiking capital expenditures (up to $20 billion planned for FY2026) to accelerate U.S. and global fab output for HBM and related products.
Broader Industry Outlook
The HBM race underscores how memory has evolved from a commodity to a strategic bottleneck in AI infrastructure. With Nvidia, AMD, and hyperscalers pushing for faster ramps, suppliers’ ability to deliver yield, efficiency, and scale will determine long-term positioning. Samsung’s HBM4 momentum revitalizes its narrative, but the market’s tightness ensures all three players benefit from insatiable demand—albeit with varying degrees of success in capturing the highest-value slices.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial recommendations, or endorsements of any security. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consult qualified professionals before making investment decisions.